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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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