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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift in Position & Closed Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy and Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.