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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."